Do Women and Men Fail Differently? DNF Risk Prediction in Self-Routed Ultracycling (TCRNo10–No11)

Authors

  • Juan Francisco Garamendi Bragado velodata.ai

Keywords:

ultracycling, survival analysis, Cox PH, landmark model, route-aware distance, women-in-cycling

Abstract

We analyse whether women and men differ in Do-Not-Finish (DNF) risk in self-routed ultracycling using Transcontinental Race (TCR) No10–No11 replay tracking. Men rode faster when moving (~10%) but DNF survival curves showed minimal separation by sex. Stopping strategies did not differ. In post-48 h landmark Cox models, early stopped time (within 48h) strongly predicted later DNF while higher moving speed was protective; sex had no effect. Route-aware distance analysis supported these conclusions. Early pacing and stop management (regardless the sex) dominate DNF risk.

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References

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Published

2026-11-02

How to Cite

Garamendi Bragado, J. F. (2026). Do Women and Men Fail Differently? DNF Risk Prediction in Self-Routed Ultracycling (TCRNo10–No11). Journal of Science and Cycling, 15(2), 31. Retrieved from https://www.jsc-journal.com/index.php/JSC/article/view/1116

Issue

Vol. 15 No. 2 (2026): Special Issue of the 2026 Science & Cycling Congress | Barcelona - June

Section

Science & Cycling Conference, Barcelona 2026

Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Science and Cycling

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