Reanalysis of Power-Based V ̇O₂max Estimation in Tadej Pogačar Reconstruction of the Record Power Performance Profile

Abstract

Several recent studies have attempted to estimate the O₂max of elite professional cyclists using models that relate the mechanical power output developed during uphill cycling to maximal oxygen uptake. A recent study by Berg proposed a O₂max value of approximately 93 ± 3 mL·min⁻¹·kg⁻¹ for Tadej Pogačar, suggesting that his performances would fall within the upper range of human physiological variability. In addition to reconstructing the Record Power Profile (RPP), the present work provides a reanalysis of this estimation, based on a correction of the mechanical and physiological parameters used in the original model. The power outputs developed during several major climbs of the 2024 and 2025 seasons were recalculated using more realistic parameters, including the effective aerodynamic coefficient (CdA), air density, rolling resistance coefficient (Crr), total rider–bicycle system mass, drafting effects, and environmental conditions. An explicit analytical propagation of uncertainties was incorporated. Aerobic endurance was re-evaluated based on power–duration relationships observed in elite professional cyclists. Finally, the energetic equivalent of oxygen was recalculated using respiratory quotient values that are physiologically plausible for prolonged high-intensity efforts. The results indicate that Berg’s initial model tends to overestimate mechanical power while underestimating the metabolic cost of the effort, primarily due to unrealistic assumptions regarding aerobic endurance and respiratory quotient. After correction, the O₂max required to explain the observed performances is estimated at 100.7 ± 3 mL·min⁻¹·kg⁻¹, a value substantially higher than that originally reported. These findings suggest that the physiological demands associated with Tadej Pogačar’s performances exceed the extreme upper bounds of O₂max values currently documented in humans. This study highlights the importance of rigorous parameter calibration, realistic modeling of aerobic endurance, and explicit uncertainty analysis when interpreting power-based O₂max estimations in professional cycling.